We are witnessing a dramatic flow of money out of active equity mutual funds and a similarly sized flow into index funds. A large portion of these outflows are from so-called closet indexers, funds that claim to be active equity managers but, upon closer inspection, closely track an index while charging active fees. Investors have wised up to this and are heading for the exits, moving into much lower-fee passive funds that provide the same underlying equity return.
Investors, economists and the media spend an enormous amount of time and energy trying to forecast the economy. The idea is that forecasting economic growth will give us an idea of where the stock market is headed. Surprisingly, no predictive relationship exists between current economic conditions and the current stock market.
Examining investment strategy can be useful when evaluating mutual funds, but what information is contained in fund holdings? Do they reveal stock-picking skill?
The widely accepted style grid of market capitalization and price-to-earnings ratios was largely arbitrary in design, lacking substantial research or academic foundation. An alternative framework based on how managers actually manage their portfolios and organizing around those investment strategies provides a superior alternative for organizing and comparing funds.
Rather surprisingly, the equity strategy framework can provide an estimate of current expected stock market returns. This is accomplished by measuring the recent investor response to each strategy, which, it turns out, captures the deep behavioral currents driving market returns. The resulting information is useful when managing equity market exposure.
With the recent market decline, increased volatility and the deafening media noise, it can be easy to lose track of the basics. Remember, recent activity doesn’t tell us much about market returns.