Mutual fund investors tend to focus on fees in order to find active equity managers that can outperform over the long run. While it is true that higher fees lead to lower performance on average, the data indicate you have an above-average chance of selecting an outperforming manager by simply picking from funds that have an annual expense ratio less than 1.5%.

The last couple of years have been very unusual. 2020 was one of the most volatile markets in recent history but the S&P 500 Price Index finished with a positive return roughly double its annual average. 2022 was just the opposite. While there was little evidence of investor panic typical of Bear Markets, stocks significantly declined in value with the S&P 500 finishing the year down 19.4%.

The current Bear Market, defined as a loss of 20% or more from an all-time high, has lasted 11 months so far. But did the market hit its low point at -25% on October 13, or will there be more declines to come? While every Bear Market is different, history can provide some perspective on where we are now. The median duration of the decline for the 11 Bear Markets charted below is 15 months while the median loss is 34%.