In these volatile times, many investors are receptive to volatility reduction products.

However, research conducted by ICON Advisers President Craig Callahan and C. Thomas Howard, professor of finance at the University of Denver and co-founder of ICON affiliate AthenaInvest, has shown that while higher- than-average weekly market volatility occurs concurrently with lower-than- average or negative returns, this phase is frequently soon followed by lower volatility and higher-than-average returns.

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The Market Barometer remains normal. US equity markets moved slightly higher in December with the S&P 500 posting a 1.0% gain while the international MSCI EAFE Index lost -0.9%. Average US active equity fund returns posted a -0.3% loss while international active equity funds underperformed the index and lost -2.3% during December. US Active managers underperformed by 5.0% while international active managers underperformed by 0.9% during 2011.

Opportunity was the best performing one month strategy while Quantitative, which was flat for the year, was the best performing strategy in domestic equity markets. Profitability was both the best one month and total year strategy in international markets in 2011, with a full-year return of -5.8% versus the index return of -12.1%.

Download the full report: Athena Perspectives – January 2012

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C. Thomas Howard, CEO and Director of Research at AthenaInvest, was quoted in a January 8, 2012 article which appeared on MarketWatch:

BOSTON — Investing a bit in mutual funds is a bit like running a pro football team. Everything is fine if you make the playoffs or see the progress you expected, but if a season ends and the numbers are ugly, you want to fire the coach.

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The Market Barometer remains normal. US equity markets did little in November with the S&P 500 posting a -0.2% loss while the MSCI EAFE Index saw a larger decrease of -4.9%. Average US active equity fund returns underperformed slightly while International active equity funds beat the index but still lost -2.5% during November. Active managers are still underperforming on a trailing twelve month basis.

Risk reemerged as the best performing one month strategy in both domestic and international equity markets. US Quantitative remains the best performing year to date and one year strategy. International Risk remains the top year to date strategy in overseas markets, but Profitability replaced Risk as the best one year strategy.

Download the full report: Athena Perspectives – December 2011

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Those who let emotions drive their investment decisions missed out on the October market surge, the largest monthly stock market return in 20 years. These investors have unwittingly fallen prey to the ‘Volatility Trap,’ failing to recognize – as our data show – that increased volatility is a precursor to higher returns.

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